Proceedings - Fourth International Conference - Piling and Deep Foundations, 1991, Stresa, Italy, (DFI)
4 Risk Model for Pile Capacity Analysis
V.R. Greco; University of Calabria, Rende (Cs), Italy F. Politi; Geoconsult Srl, Rome. Italy
Use of a bayesian type probabilistic approach makes it possible to check the reliability of design predictions of pile bearing capacity even when there are only a few loading tests. Such an analysis is made assuming a prior probability distribution, that is successively modified according to the loading test results, using the ratio between the predicted and the measured pile capacity as a statistical variable. In this paper the prior distribution is formulated on the basis of the processing of data reported in literature, while the results of eight loading tests are utilized to obtain the modified probability distribution. The procedure permits us to take into account in a risk analysis both the general experience, achieved by means of observations on the behavior of piles in soil, and the results of a small number of load tests available for given pile type and soil features.
|article #446; publication #37 (IC-1991-IT)|